Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Global rate-cut standoff looms in '23 policy finale

 Global rate-cut standoff looms in '23 policy finale

Central bankers meet against a backdrop of how the global inflation cycle is turning

 From Washington to Frankfurt to London and beyond, central bankers are approaching their final decisions of the year against a backdrop of unease at how the global inflation cycle is turning.

Policymakers from fully half of the Group of 10 jurisdictions of most-traded currencies are scheduled to meet in the coming days, and interest rates for 60% of the world economy will be set in a whirlwind 60-hour window.

Most notable will be the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, followed on Thursday by central banks including those of the eurozone and the UK.

With the exception of Norway-which may conceivably raise borrowing costs- most monetary officials are confronting financial market pressures to explain why they seem unhurried about pivoting to monetary easing.

Most central banks in Latin America have begun cutting rates.Brazil and Peru may reduce rates in the coming week.

In India,RBI last week decided not to increase repo rates for the Fifith time in a row.

Synchronised weakening in inflation data and weakening in inflation data and some evidence data and some evidence of softening economies have prompted investors to ramp up bets on rate cuts in the first half of 2024.

That’s a view that could clash with the mantra the Fed and its peers expounded little more than three months ago,of higher for longer.

In Latin America,which led the push upwards with rate hikes,most central banks are already on the way down,and Brazil  and Peru may both cut in the coming week

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